>>21550821>if republicans gain in 2026 there is something seriously wrongDepends on funding and policies. Trump can't run for re-election. Last time he had 200 million dollars raised in 2018 and spent about 20 million on the midterms in 2018 to help along some senate candidates like Skeletor in Florida.
Most likely Trump can go full force on midterms this time, which will benefit him in defending seats.
While all house seats are up, only certain senate seats are up. Republicans are going ham on the seat in GA while defending seats like NC. This creates a situation for the democrats- do they defend themselves in GA, attack in NC, fight for the House? Or do they conserve funding to hold what they have and go full force in 2028 to win the presidency? Democrats spending frivolously has never really helped them, but what did help them was that McConnell kept moving money away from races like Michigan and Arizona to Maryland and Pennsylvania. But republicans actually won PA. In 2026 Mitch is gone and no longer in charge of senate spending. As the defenses and offenses are relatively simple (attack GA, defend NC) they would have to actively sabotage it in order to fuck that up. Trump will likely focus on retaining or gaining in the House, then- the opposite of his 2018 strategy of defending the senate.
Most importantly is that Trump is going to bring back SALT, a tax cut that primarily benefits middle class suburbanites. When he removed it back in 2017, he lost a bunch of suburban house districts in 2018. Bringing SALT back will give him a 5-10% bump with middle class suburbanites.
All of these factors are in play. Will Trump manage to grow his house majority, like George W. Bush in 2002? Will slashing middle class taxes put suburbs like northern virginia and northern new jersey back in play? Will democrats go full force? Will Trump raise and spend 200 million dollars on house races?
