I agree with Peter Schiff that most factories won't relocate back to America even if the tariffs are 100%. It's still cheaper to manufacture overseas, unless Americans want to work for $2 per hour, which they won't, or unless America will import a labor force to make up for the loss of Asia that entails 250 million immigrants (who would mostly have to be from Africa, since only Africa has those numbers).
And what factories do come back to America will be mostly automated, so no jobs. UBI is going to be a survival necessity soon, or else advanced economies will be facing Bolshevik Revolutions.
The US, in return for allowing other countries to tariff us more than we tariff them, was allowed to print unlimited dollars and buy anything with them around the world. It was a free money machine. Why give that up?
Sure, it couldn't go on forever, but perhaps another decade or two, since no one else was ready to step into America's shoes as the world leader. These tariffs might be the end of the age of American Superpower, economically, geopolitically, culturally, and eventually militarily.
I am not sure, but only time will tell.
I'm expecting a hard crash, a financial crash, and then a bailout up to $10 to $20 trillion for the banks and the systemically necessary corporations as the only way to prevent economic implosion. Not sure if the current administration would go along with the bailouts, though, as they would cost a generation's worth of wealth. In that case, depression is in store for the next decade. Prices may plummet but no one will have significant money except the very well off, whose fortunes will also decline.
China now has an opportunity to present itself as the rightful world leader, already being the world's factory. With a big military buildup, China could secure the waves, hence secure international trade, and make alliances around the world, from Asia to Europe to Canada to South America. This is China's chance to dethrone the United States for good.
