>>2081330Like I said earlier
>People born in 1947 are now 79 years old,>and Japanese life expectancy is 81 for men and 87 for womenA downturn has already started(and might grow into a crash in a few years) because the post-war baby boom generation is dying and leaving a massive hole in demand, made even worse by an increasing amount of Japanese not being able to afford to buy a house in the first place. It becomes more obvious if you look at the companies shilling houses in Japan to foreigners: AkiyaHub built their business on not actually being brokers and getting money on doing your Japanese due dilligence for you, and Mokomoko(formerly AkiyaMart), which does offer some brokerage options like owners being able to advertise their house to sell, switched to a flat 5K USD fee for helping you buy a house instead of commissions. Both of those business models are designed to not take damage from house prices going down, especially Mokomoko which will happily sell you a house cheaper than the fee, unlike AkiyaHub which will try to convince you to move up into 50-100K USD range.
Hell, look at Shu Matsuo's video on Hashimoto Station, which Chuo Shinkansen will stop at.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMvSzmzHqB4The second house they visit(starts 9:30-ish) was completed in 2024, and has never been lived in, but because it's been so long it can't be advertised as a new house. Hashimoto is already just 40 minutes from Shinjuku by Keio, and yet nobody bought it. Few years ago that listing wouldn't last a month without a buyer.
It's even worse in the countryside because why the fuck would you pay 40 million yen for a new house if you can buy a 30-40 year old one for 6 million yen, move in, and put in like 2 million yen at most, that can also be spread out over time, into renovation? Look at all the new empty houses on Sea of Japan coast. Nobody is touching them. And in a few years that will be all of Japan save for Tokyo/Osaka/Nagoya/Fukuoka/Naha.
