>>22061826Based
>NVDA For the past four earnings cycles, the stock peaked (at close) 7-13 days before earnings were reported (with the exception of the May 22, 2024 earnings cycle, where the stock basically went sideways for a week before eeking out a local maximum the day before earnings). What does this imply? You are probably safe to load the boat now and sell 7-13 days before earnings.
Double selloff recently (Deep-seek, tariffs) gave the stock a ~15% haircut, giving room to run
China tariffs priced in for now, Singapore an option
Technical Pre-Earnings Analysis
NVDA always bullish, runs-up in the ~2-3 weeks before earnings
1Q24 – 84 to 95 from 5/1 - 5/22 earnings, 13% run
2Q24 – 102 to 127 from 8/8 - 8/28 earnings, 24% run
3Q24 – 134 to 148 from 11/1 - 11/20 earnings, 10% run
Taking the midpoint for ~16% run up into 2/26 earnings, PT of ~143
4Q24 forecast run-up of 124 to 143 for ~16% run to pre-Deep-seek levels
Intuitive to fill Deep-seek gap, reversion to mean as fear is replaced by optimism leading into earnings
