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I won't start out with "I honestly believe that..." since we're so far deep into clown world but picrelated is what I wrote in reply to "Fed needs to hike instead of lower rates" over three months ago.
If the Fed doesn't hike (yes, hike) interest rates at their next meeting in September or at least keeping them unchanged, my guess is that we're heading for an eventual big bang.
If they cut at the next meeting, it would entirely confirm and solidify anybody's suspicions that the Fed is indeed political and their main unwritten mandate is stock market line go up, everything else be damned.
Again, if they cut, they are cutting for the LULZ and not out of any monetary or economic necessity.
And yes, if they cut, my guesstimate is that trillions upon trillions of "currency units of unknown origin" will show up from the sidelines and steadily pile into the markets.
There won't be no "Fed cuts when things are heading into muh recession" if they cut this time. It'll solely be a "line go up and upper" measure.
And at some point in time, from some ridiculous SPX level, something will break and wreak havoc. What and when highly uncertain.
