>>22484869looking at everything in pic related, it seems a lot more likely that 5000 SPX holds in the short run
it is a lot more likely that we rally here in the short term, back to within the average true range
however with that said, due to the extreme negative gamma exposure and the 500 put wall, if we do continue to sell off, it will be particularly nasty as the negative gamma will reinforce the move to the downside
I also highly expect that over the weekend geopolitical news will break that XYZ country and the US are making a deal re: tariffs, or tax cuts; or some other news will be manufactured to try and stabilize the markets
today was peak fear - in general, it's more likely that people settle down over the weekend and shake it off
I am still bearish longterm, but we have now reached extreme fear, very oversold, where probability wise it is more likely to have a flat or green day on Monday
I would not be surprised either if we sold off Sunday open into premarket, and then we rally and close flat / green
I think that the 500 SPY put wall will hold as support
