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Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO china-short-squeeze.png, 1MiB, 2880x1618

Anonymous ID:vA/+b0ES Wed 02 Oct 2024 16:01:56 No.21330428 View View Report

Quoted By:

>>21330293
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-13/hedge-funds-have-never-been-this-bearish-on-brent-crude-before?
https://archive.is/ApAzX
>Money managers’ short positions outnumbered long bets by 12,680 lots in the week ended Sept. 10, the first time that’s happened in ICE Futures Europe data going back to January 2011.
>The gloomy sentiment rippled across refined-products markets as well. Money managers also turned the most bearish on diesel in almost nine years, deepening their net-short position to 38,609 lots. Similarly, gasoline’s net-long position was the least bullish in more than seven years, dwindling to just 5,193 lots. Money managers also boosted their bearish gasoil bets to a record net-short position of 64,461 lots.
>As bearish bets have surged and the trade got crowded, some of those positions were unwound later this week, leading to a tepid price recovery.
IMPORTANT QUOTE:
>the trade got crowded
>the trade got crowded
>the trade got crowded
Short oil is literally one of the most crowded trades in the market right now. Do you remember what happened when short China was the most crowded trade?
>pic related
You are going to get absolutely rekt
Oil is going to surge higher, massive short squeeze will occur - this will reignite inflation, this will reignite yields moving sharply higher; this will put big downward pressure across markets
The Fed will use this as the scapegoat as to why they did not achieve soft landing
>Well, we would have had a soft landing, but unforeseen geopolitical circumstances made inflation rise higher!
>It's not OUR fault that we had irresponsible, inflationary monetary policy!

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO china-short-squeeze.png, 1MiB, 2880x1618

Anonymous ID:6ZGq1KPN Fri 27 Sep 2024 19:18:11 No.21302706 View View Report

Quoted By:

>>21302688
I agree that you should be short China
however.. the unwind/short squeeze it is hard to predict how far it will go
It is better to wait to see the rollover, and then go short, rather than end up getting squeezed yourself
I also don't think the first rollover will be the "real" rollover
eg. we get a day -2% move HSI index, that will be bought up -- only the rollover after this initial rollover

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO china-short-squeeze.png, 1MiB, 2880x1618

Anonymous ID:CcoX4AXg Thu 26 Sep 2024 15:54:00 No.21295545 View View Report

Quoted By:

>>21295376
>>21295395
I am bearish on US markets, too.
It's a short squeeze - look at pic related.
If the markets genuinely believed that the Chinese economy was to improve, we would see a rally in iron ore, we would see a rally in coal - we are not seeing either
The Chinese economy is still fucked, and any rally should be sold
It will take time for the short squeeze to fizzle, but the fundamentals have not changed

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