>>21090194There are no certainties, only probabilities. You could very well be right, but usually people will buy deep ITM, long-dated calls if they're bullish on something in the long term.
If you're targeting near-term bullish or bearish sentiment (delta), then it might be worth looking into doing bear/bull credit spreads to protect your downside. Sure, you have unlimited upside with calls, but it won't realistically hit 200% increase in two weeks, so you're basically paying more premium to have an uncapped upside instead of managing probabilities.
I like to project price forward using sqrt(T) x ATR. This more or less lines up with where prices will move if you look at the breakevens of buying an ATM straddle, and it usually falls around 25 or 75 delta. In this case, these numbers don't quite line up - but assume the market knows better than the chart (in which case the BE range / purple box here is the way to go). My price projection is +/- 1 SD of price action and you can see that the market is pricing in less of a move than that.
Keep in mind, NVDA has an ER in like 2 days. If it moves significantly, I think it would be good to sell the Sep 13 calls to take advantage of the volatility. If it moves down, both legs will probably get crushed. I'd say your Oct 4th target might be unrealistic; the way I would play this is to take advantage of the increased IV going into ER and do some kind of calendar spread. For example, you're long 7 calls, so why not sell 4 ATM calls for Aug 30? It would help offset the downside and offset a lot of the cost of this position to begin with
Just remember to always watch for your vega/IV exposure
