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as i thought all along, everything in the middle east tracks back to china. bombing iran's oil facilities or cutting off the strait of hormuz would cut off china's supply of oil, putting a ticking clock on their military, economy, and essentially state.
this would put them in a corner, and almost certainly provoke a response. while it is tempting to think they would try to take taiwan, in reality china's navy is likely not up to the task, especially if there was a shortage of oil. instead they would fight where they have strength, on land, where numbers and firepower are in their favor. this puts south korea, thailand, and malaysia at great risk. this is the crossing the rubicon moment and it seems to me likely that it happens. what has all this been for otherwise? it pains me to say it but this is the best path for the west, stifle china now before it becomes a bigger problem. along the same line of thought, china must prevail or it will be balkanized and subjugated like we have not seen for 100 years. this conflict is existential and likely to involve nuclear weapons. korea, japan, taiwan, australia, even mainland us is likely to suffer strikes if this occurs. take measures. flee from military staging areas and strategic sites.
there is still a way out of it. china could scuttle its fleet, bide its time, and wait for a better opportunity, but the west, having learned china's intentions, is unlikely to ever slacken unless facing military defeat. china's relative strength and capabilities are peaking now, as we speak. the stakes are being raised and soon we will see if they were bluffing or serious.