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IDs are just base64 48-bit integers, so there are 2^48 = 2^(6*8) = 64^8 possible IDs. Kot can be in one of 6 positions in the ID, and there are 8 kot capitalizations. The other 5 characters don't matter, so the chance is 6 * 8 * 2^(6*5) / 2^(6*8) = 0.018% or 1 in 5461.
The chance is slightly improved if you count double or triple kot GETs (e.g. KotKotABC) or zeros (e.g. K0t).