>>20123003I'm absolutely no expert on the subject but it is true that pressure and production in vertical wells drops fairly quickly once they're completed, they can lose more than 50% of daily oil production within a year. Verticals tend to get gassier over time as pressure drops and as such gas production should remain elevated over the years. But the thing with shale is that unlike conventional o&g, it is repeatable. As long as you've got productive shale formations to fracture you will have continued production. In the US most shale basins have peaked in rate of production but the Permian is one basin that is still defying predictions and continues to grow in production, but from the info I gather it's likely that the Permian will also peak in the early 2030s. With all that said the production in these peaked basins will continue for a long time to come, only the rate of production will plateau and start drifting down. It's not like all of a sudden production will cease.
The next frontier of o&g will probably be offshore and ultradeep. Though Canada and Alaska have room for growth I think.
Pic related: IEA prediction from 2012. Notice how both IEA and Citi were off with their predictions, as US shale oil production is at >8mbpd today. I suppose back then people underestimated the extent of US shale.
