>>21644494of course - many traditional macro metrics are red hot though
buffet indicator (stocks vs. GDP): +2.15 stdev above trend (top 1.6% all-time)
CAPE: +2.00 (top 2.3%)
mean reversion: +2.01 (top 2.2%)
10yr interest rate comparison: +1.33 (top 9.2%)
longest 10yr-3mo yield inversion ever (now surpassing the great depression)
unemployment crossing the 2yr moving average (sahm rule triggered)
continued retraction of leading economic indicator reports
junk bond spread at prior peaks
housing overvalued (picrel)
there are some I find that are more promising:
margin debt levels as % of market: +0.15 stdev - very normal, not like 00, 08, or 21 at all
household debt payments as % of income is at normal levels
I'm a boglehead for retirement, but most of what I find suggests being conservative with my mid-term investments for a future housing/land purchase
or at the very least, don't expect continued returns like what we've seen lately
