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probably worth taking a look back in time last time the s&p was rangebound at an important level, just a couple months ago. notice how it wants to go higher but it seems like gravity is pulling it back to 6k but it keeps bouncing off and trying again. that was a bullish time though. for this you're gonna have to think bizarro mode, inverse that chart. think 5400 will have a gravitic force, but we'll likely trade beneath it, have lots of down days and every once in a while we'll get hopium news that spikes us up but then a "reality check" that sends us back to despair. until finally some sort of news catalyst breaks us free and we can go on the hunt for ath's again. or ww3 breaks out and everything crashes to nothing, who knows?
anything could happen as i often say, but if the world stays pretty similar to the way it looks right now, that's my trading forecast, bear-crab until happy compromise.