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It feels like there's a pretty even 50/50 split as to what the market will do this week, and the months following the rate decision. Interesting to see basically every narrative from the last two years just get flipped upside down as the actual decision approaches. Are we really just going to keep violently crabbing slightly upwards? Or is all of the inflation data/Ukraine bullshit/recession fears etc. going to cause a slowly building panic that snowballs like 2022?
Personally I think we're statistically overdue for a recession, since literally every other time the yield curve has inverted since the 70s we've had a recession within 2 years. Can the Fed actually pull off a soft landing? Or at least fudge policy enough to make it appear as such?
