>>21423616>The betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization. Markets failed to predict Trump's 2016 win. The only other time: 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat 8-to-1 odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-statesIt is extremely doubtful, a lot has shifted in the last 2 weeks
>Red Sweep (Republican control): Most bullish for USD across the board>Blue Sweep (Democratic control): Most bearish for USD, but moves likely smaller than in Red Sweep>Trump win without Congress: USD strength, but FX carry trades at risk>Harris win without Congress: Mixed bag, with Asian FX potential outperformer