everything going on in the middle east is linked to the possible war in china - in that the goal is to be able to block iranian oil exports in a conflict. what has been going on seems to be phase one, securing the immediate area around israel which would be the main staging area for such an operation. turkey is a stumbling block in that regard in that it is controlled by erdogan, who is a nationalist that backs turkish interests rather than a puppet that carries out nato orders.
turkey is the largest regional power and any war with iran would be majorly complicated by a turkish intervention or non-cooperation. this is an important signal from turkey and one that should not be taken lightly, even if they are unable to back up their threat.
what this means going forward is uncertain, but it is a friction point that will certainly affect planning and contingencies for everyone involved or interested.
don't be surprised if we have to urgently support democracy in turkey in the near future though, or if some greeks or crypto jews within turkey stage a coup.
my hope is that this can have a stabilizing effect, that diplomacy will ultimately prevail, and tensions wind down, but i've been hoping that since march 2021 and things keep getting worse by the day so i'm not optimistic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZJRJpbGkG4 