>>23534886I think there is a good possibility that lithium is closer to a bull market than most might think. Brine extraction from wastewater remains a supply risk but the first such commercial plant is coling online in two years. New ones will likely follow but a meaningful surge in o&g related lithium supply is probably 5 years from now at the earliest. Battery competition will remain a going concern but with lithium prices being low right now I don't think lithium's competition is a serious problem. Lower EV demand could hamper battery production but it seems that lithium ion battery production capacity is increasing meaningfully in 2025 and onward compared to 2024. There is so much battery capacity that there is talk of overcapacity relative to EV demand. US reshoring and low lithium and iron ore prices seem to be the reason for the big step-change in battery production capacity.
https://www.ess-news.com/2024/10/02/overcapacity-in-storage-continues-says-cea-q224-report/Idk, will battery manufacturers scale back production or will EV producers increase their capacity and start emptying the warehouses out of those batteries? Depends on how much these companies are willing to compete in margins, and of course the consumer more generally. We'll see
