>>23462772>the Permian peakingit's more of a plateau. "Peak" gives this false impression of a sudden drop, in reality there is going to be a longer topping process and then decades of slowly falling production. So far US shale has managed to elude predictions of a top, it will come at some point but there won't be a shocking drop unless the prices do a covid again. Anyways while US shale will probably find some kind of top in the months or years ahead there will still be a lot of value for decades in the best consolidated acres
>are we really gonna see an offshore boom in OIL once prices start going up again?After most of the consolidations are out of the way I would expect the attention to turn offshore. Right now there is historically speaking very little exploration being done thanks in large part to shale. Most exploration capex today is spent offshore as shale and oil sands are derisked and well understood so no need to explore there, and conventional discoveries haven't been keeping up with production since before the shale boom so conventional discoveries have mostly been depleted. Meaningful offshore discoveries have already been made in recent years in Guyana, Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire, South Africa, Namibia and other places. There's also great potential for major onshore shale oil development in the Middle East whenever they feel like pursuing that avenue seriously, and China's vast kerogen deposits could turn out to be feasible sources of oil if prices or technology improve enough. There are also vast yet underutilized reserves and resources in Canadian/Venezuelan oil sands, Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale, and Alaska (note: the US National Petroleum Reserve)
>So my question is am I gonna make bank buying offshore drillers and engineers?I want to say yes but OFS isn't my strong suit, and I think OFS companies have a poor long term track record for some reason.
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