>>21498304You shouldn't trade stocks based on stuff you have no understanding of. Based on current polls he is leading. In 2020 he was behind by 8% in all these 'swing' states. In the final election tallies he was about 1-2% behind in the swingies, a dramatic overperformance.. I feel like if you're not a retard you should be able to appreciate it isn't "what /pol/ says" but the available data, backtested to previous elections, with reflections on current data such as early ballot returns by party showing dropoffs in democratic turnout by 50% and increases in republican turnout by 50%, the harris campaign pulling out of north carolina because they are afraid of losing virginia, the fact republicans have gained 200,000 new voters in pennsylvania (and are gaining about 40,000 a week) while democrats have lost 200,000 in pennsylvania.
Also importantly is that Trump is up 10-15% in Texas and Florida, while Kamala is below 60% in California. This would indicate across the board Trump is gaining 2-6 million votes, while Kamala has lost 8-10 million compared to 2020, meaning it is unlikely for her to win the popular vote.
Based on these factors and Trump's overperformance we would expect his possible maximum to give him up to 356 electoral votes.
Every factor relevant to winning an election favors Trump in absolute numbers, except spending where the Harris campaign has run out of money and had more money during the last 3 months.
If you are a human who can understand statistics then you understand harris has a very uphill fight to win and is actually more likely to get bodied like Dukakis in 1988 than come out with a surprise upset. Unless you are saying both Clinton and Biden cheated and that Harris will also cheat.
