>>21455313>>21455964(addendum 1)
remember:
on October 23rd, 2023 Bill Ackmann gave the thinly veiled and widely understood marching order to buy all the things(stock) full send with the announcement of covering his bond shorts.
in retrospective, this was the first tangible indication that the Fed has "pivoted."
since then the widely held expectation is that the Fed is fully engaging in another easing cycle, but this time just for the LULZ, as the economy and the joy market does not show any sign of contraction and has proven itself to be very robust and withstanding of "high(er)" interest rates.
by easing cycle i mean the following few circumstances that must be met
>first a few rate cuts in the Fed funds rate>then (AND THIS IS A MUST) an announcement of Fed balance sheet expansion (QE)>then another set of cuts in the Fed funds rate.the QE part is really all that matters, lower interest rates are merely a byproduct. but certainly the Feds initial behavior towards interest rates is widely thought of indicative oh a swift return to QE.
this is what the bigs have banked on ever since Ackmann gave the order in late October of last year.
ever since they front-ran what they thought was a soon to be fulfilled certainty. but so far, it hasn't happened.
[personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the whole system is leveraged to the tits and all of the bigs have pre-spent what their quants told them Powell would blow up their arses soon]
now one year later I guess, well, that the bigs are starting to get nervous, because neither did the economy and job market crack (which would be a HUGE incentive for the Fed to continue and hurry the way to QE) nor did the Fed already start QE for the LULZ. the only carrot that's being held in front of the bigs is picrelated, the obvious almost grinding to a halt of the Feds quantitative tightening "efforts", which is only just a precursor and more psychological than anything.