>>21159297I think it makes more sense to backtest and apply current data to past charts. When there are rate cuts the 'real' recession is 6-12 months in the future, like how march 2020's dump happened about 6-12 months after rate cuts. Historically there's a pump into october and after rate cuts. There is then a dump. Then after the election- even during the 2008 crash- there is a big pump after the election. So there will be a zig zag volatile pattern downwards over the next 6 months, with major dead cat bounces/meltups followed by a violent asshart when it is no longer necessary for invested powers to keep the charade up they can pull the rug in january 2025. This gives the market time to make a comeback before the 2026 midterms and Kamala will 'save' the US by doing nothing.
