>>23418573>The new mine was continually being delayedseems like they still lack some final permits for the underground mine expansion. They are really selling that in their newest presentation but I think the AISC is likely to go up because of the capital expenditures. Their current mine should have at least five years worth of reserves and another five years in M&I resources thanks to the UG expansion.
At $2,100/oz basket price the post-tax NPV10% is close to $1B there, and the market cap is $400M at the moment. In an improving PGM market I think they're trading at a pretty attractive discount to NPV especially considering that they still have their next project, the 80% stake in Karo which is in Zimbabwe which should have a similar NPV to the currently operating Tharisa mine.
The balance sheet looks clean and I believe that once they get their final permits for the UG expansion they should be able to keep paying at least a 2.5% dividend yield at the current price while continuing to operate and advance both projects. Haven't done the DCFs for both assets at current prices but I suspect even at the prevailing market prices they should be able to at least break even when taking into account the capital expenditures, taxes, financing expenses and dividends. The EBITDA multiple right now is 4-5x which is pretty much fair value, but if the PGM basket price goes to $2k this seems like a nobrainer double or more with a dividend as a cherry on top.
Of course I would probably sell at least until I got back my cost basis if it went up a double. Ivanhoe's Platreef is going to flood the market by 2029. I'll do more DD about this but I gotta say I am pretty convinced already.
