>>20232042To me, depends on your horizon.
HE has about a half a billion in cash waiting for lawsuits, and has already put nearly 100 million into funds and such.
NYCB is currenly about 60% of share book, and NYC is housing tens of thousands of immigrants at State and Federal costs, making residential real-estate (which is most of the original NYCB portolio) a pretty good play. Their risk is mostly the commercial stuff they picked up from Flagstar, but unless those immigrants burn NYC down, there's gonna be alot of deposits and small business stuff which NYCB always did pretty well prior to the merger.
Other stuff includes housing, especially multi-family and multifamily builders. Mortgages are going to be repaid with the inflation rate, so look for alot of nice profits in fixed rate REITs.
Strip-mall valuations will be regional, but the lock-in on housing from the great rates of 2020-2022 should help stabilize a number of facilities for regular customers with some spending cash. Professional commercial is suffering, all over the US towers are going on sale, "take my mortgage please" kinda stuff.
I own HE and NYCB, both are long plays, but I think NYCB will be capable of being a short play until they get closer to their book of $6 and change. Hopefully, they're doing buybacks at these prices.
Lumber costs are getting low, so if you can invest in builders that do add-ons and remodels in the right regions, there's gonna be some upside.
Anyone capable of doing commercial multistory redevelopment into multifamily housing, is looking at free real-estate. Very regional, most cities still frown on breaking their Zoning blocks.
Also, I'd love to hear some if anyone has any ideas.
