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Before July I was convinced that we could just have a 30% or so correction, like a worse 2022, then we could just carry on business as usual, maybe worst-case scenario we could just end up with a "lost decade" of crabbing or something.
After July's movement I'm terrified. I know its been beaten to death by now but 2008 tier crash seems very increasingly likely. Covid crash and 2022 crash were not 2008 level since recovery was almost instant, there was no chance to find a real bottom.
The runup from dotcom to 2008 barely just doubled the SPX, but the runup from covid to now has 2.5X'd the SPX. If the runup is greater then logically the crash would be greater, and if the 2008 crash was -57.5% on the SPX from top to bottom then we could see something even worse once this pops.
I hope to God it topped on Friday, because if it goes on to touch 6k then we could see it in the 2-3k region worst-case scenario before 2025 ends. <4k is basically written-in at this point.
My only question is what is there to crash with everything already in the shitter except for tech? Tech and the wider index can't really go against each other, the extent to which they have done so recently is already near-unprecedented. Hopefully tech just does a -80% while everything else just crabs and we only end up with more laid-off techbros instead of civilization-wide anarchy.
