>>10374502The thing that people focus on is the end situation, one box, one gold ball taken out. Only two possibilities left.
The actual probability lies with the boxes which were randomly picked before.
If you randomly pick a box and happen to get a golden ball out of it, the chances of you having picked the box with two gold balls is 2/3, as there were 3 Gold balls and one box contains 2 while the other only contains one.
If you take this into the consideration it becomes the actual determining factor, because you either ended up with a double Gold box with a probability of 2/3 or with a single gold box with a probability of 1/3.
Or in other words: The chance that the gold ball you just pulled is from the box with both in them is higher.
My argument that its misleading again stems from the fact that most people do not calculate what box the Gold ball was more likely to come from, instead only focussing on the final situation of one box with only one ball left.
Other anons ITT say 50% because they only focus on this without putting the leadup to it, as in from what box were you more likely to draw a gold ball from in the first place, into the equation.
