/bant/ - International/Random » Thread #12975602

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Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:07:34 No.12975602 View View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>12975603 >>12975604 >>12975605 >>12975608 >>12975609 >>12975610 >>12975611 >>12975612 >>12975615 >>12975620 >>12975627 >>12975631 >>12975633

They should bring back tests for prospective voters. If you can't solve this, you don't deserve to vote.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:09:42 No.12975603 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975602
Yes.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:10:31 No.12975604 Report

Quoted By: >>12975606

>>12975602
Literally not my problem
2/3

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:12:37 No.12975605 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975602
50/50

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:14:21 No.12975606 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975604
spbp
/thread

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:21:56 No.12975607 Report

Quoted By:

50%

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:28:17 No.12975608 Report

Quoted By: >>12975610 >>12975623 >>12975624

>>12975602
Posting my answer using Bayes' Theorem from before:
P(A|B) = (P(B|A)P(A))/P(B)
Probability of picking each box (GG, GS, SS) = 1/3
Probability of observing a gold ball if you pick two gold balls in total = P(gold ball|GG) = 1
Probability of box 1 producing gold = 1 = P(1)
Probability of box 2 producing gold = 1/2 = P(2)
Probability of box 3 producing gold = 0 = P(3)

P(GG|gold ball) = (P(gold ball|GG)*(1/3))/((1/3)(P(1)+P(2)+P(3))) = (1/3)/((1/3)(1+(1/2)+0)) = 1/(3/2) = 2/3

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:30:10 No.12975609 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975602
Impossible to know the probability.
>all the extra detail of other boxes and their contents are immaterial to the ONE box choosen.

>My box was stuffed with fake ballots for Biden.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:32:27 No.12975610 Report

Quoted By: >>12975613

>>12975602
>>12975608
ok lets see
if i were to modify the scenario into two like this
(10G)(1G9S) and (10G)(9G1S)
and hte last line to "What are the odds of the rest of the balls in the box to be gold"
these 2 scenarios have equal probability therefore the original scenario has the probability of 50%, correct?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:33:19 No.12975611 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975602
By pulling one gold that eliminates box 3 altogether. This leaves the remaining possible options as a 2/3 chance of the second ball being gold as well.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:35:09 No.12975612 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975602
Probabilities do not influence each other.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:40:04 No.12975613 Report

Quoted By: >>12975614 >>12975618

>>12975610
Let me put it another way. In the original problem, we know that we start with a gold ball; that means that the box with the two silver balls is irrelevant to the original question. Let's label the gold balls G1, G2 (these are in box 1) and G3 (which is in box 2 with the silver ball). That means we can have the pairs G1G2, G2G1 or G3S if we know that a gold ball was drawn first. There are three possibilities, and two of them lead to a gold ball being drawn next, so the probability is 2/3.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:47:43 No.12975614 Report

Quoted By: >>12975616

>>12975613
my modification has equivalent condition
>"What are the odds of the REST of the balls in the box to be gold"
is equivalent to
>"What are the odds of the OTHER ball in the box to be gold"
given given that "one of two" = "rest" because in a pair "one" is equal to "rest"
that has to mean theres no conditional probability because your fate was sealed by choosing a box

lets try an analogy
lets say we have 2 vertical ball dispenser from which you can only see the bottom ball
what is the chance of the next ball being gold
given one has next ball silver and the other gold

your fate is sealed by choosing a dispenser therefore the gold boxes ball pick up are not 2 different events

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:53:24 No.12975615 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975602
50%
50%
50%
50%
>Bertrand's box paradox
No
>BOX PICKED
>1 GOLD BALL ALREADY RETRIEVED
Seethe and cope tech monkeys, your math pilpul doesn't work in the real world

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 11:58:34 No.12975616 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975614
The only problem with your analogy is that order actually matters, so choosing the pair G1G2 isn't the same as G2G1. If order didn't matter though, then you'd be right. In the original problem, the picking of the second ball is dependent on you originally having a gold ball.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:01:49 No.12975617 Report

Quoted By: >>12975619

Well it's easy to simulate this with code...

https://play.golang.org/p/Dhb5fK4iR91

oh crap it's really 1/3

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:12:50 No.12975618 Report

Quoted By: >>12975621 >>12975622 >>12977877

>>12975613
English comprehension you dumb nigger
>What is the probability that the next ball you take from the SAME box will also be gold?
This means your hand only goes in one box. Given that you have already pulled out a gold ball from your selected box, the only variable that matters is the box you picked , and we can obviously eliminate the 2 silver pieces box.

That leaves you with a 50/50 probability based on a single decision you already made.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:15:00 No.12975619 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975617
uh I'm retarded, wrote it wrong

https://play.golang.org/p/4DrgdfvDNPv

yeah it's 2/3

cool

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:15:11 No.12975620 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975602
100% or 0%

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:18:30 No.12975621 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975618
This. How retarded are you fucks. There are only 2 boxes with any gold balls. Your hand is in one of them. It’s now a 50/50 chance of being in either of them.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:21:43 No.12975622 Report

Quoted By: >>12975625 >>12975628

>>12975618
hey imagine it was not boxes with 1/1

but imagine it's
* one box A with 1000 yellow
* one box B with 1 yellow 999 white
* one box C with 1000 white

Now you got to pick one, and you get yellow. And you just try to guess if you picked A or B

now obviously you more probably picked A than B, even when it's down to two possibilities, but it is not 50:50

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:24:47 No.12975623 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975608
Surely it is 50/50 considering it must be box 1 or 2, as you have the information for one box.

Maybe 2/3 if you are talking about across all boxes?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:26:18 No.12975624 Report

Quoted By: >>12975626

>>12975608
>>12975608
It is 75% because the boxes dont matter.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:26:41 No.12975625 Report

Quoted By: >>12975628

>>12975622
Then it’s a different math problem dipshit

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:27:51 No.12975626 Report

Quoted By: >>12975629 >>12975632

>>12975624
Oh wait it is 66%.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:29:34 No.12975627 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975602
What's the odds of you dying if someone shoots you in the balls with a shotgun?
All fields.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:30:35 No.12975628 Report

Quoted By: >>12976106

>>12975625
I try to make you understand why it's not 50:50 even when it's "two possibilites"

it's two possibilities but with different probabilities

because you more probably selected the first box than the second box, based on the info that you have

you more probably selected the first box because it has more yellows

the same as with my the problem here
>>12975622

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:30:47 No.12975629 Report

Quoted By: >>12975630 >>12975632

>>12975626
The rat people invaded our privacy as a left arm for the government to do their ugly job to fix their predetermined outcomes.
See very simple.
That is why you are a tranny.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:32:29 No.12975630 Report

Quoted By: >>12975632

>>12975629
Esp, if those researces are led by females. Females in that positions tend to tweak and cheat so they can make ground because they are subpar.
We dont bail out the cucks, just fuck off.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:32:57 No.12975631 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975602
1/2
I you get a gold ball it can be the third one, so only 2 box are left

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:33:37 No.12975632 Report

Quoted By: >>12975634

>>12975626
>>12975629
>>12975630
You forgot your VPN you fucking Glowie.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 2021-06-17_210633_vxqqCcqv_mspai (...).png, 614KiB, 1776x1204

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:35:30 No.12975633 Report

Quoted By: >>12975635 >>12977948

>>12975602

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:36:19 No.12975634 Report

Quoted By: >>12976051

>>12975632
I dont give a fuck.
Imagine working for a government entity that is led by a female. How pathetic are you.
You ask for the ultimate winning condition, it is not to be a part of you. And i found that.
So suck my dick. A literal untermensch, ein männchen. Gehörst du auch der army an bist du doch ganz schon arm dran.
Du missgeburt, du verachtenswertes etwas.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:38:21 No.12975635 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975633
the two possibilities don't have the same probability though

Anonymous

Anonymous ID:IE1pzsJi Fri 18 Jun 2021 12:56:41 No.12976051 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975634
You were posing as two people in the argument with yourself, you are hear to derail threads, you glowie.

Anonymous

Anonymous ID:0Ov24lJB Fri 18 Jun 2021 13:23:05 No.12976106 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975628
"Possibility" means something may happen, but we don't know how likely. "Probability" means something may happen, but we believe it is more likely (i.e., more "probable") than not.

We don’t know how likely we are to pull a second yellow ball from the same box. So we only have one out of two answers to our question (1/2)

Anonymous

Anonymous ID:kMVbN2o6 Fri 18 Jun 2021 18:06:38 No.12977877 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975618
The problem is that there's two gold balls in one box and only one in the other box. This is intro-level shit in any college probability class.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO not-50-50.png, 305KiB, 1062x1671

Anonymous ID:SwWuvZhW Fri 18 Jun 2021 18:11:26 No.12977889 Report

Quoted By:

It's not 50%. picrel

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO not-50-50.png, 379KiB, 1062x1939

Anonymous ID:SwWuvZhW Fri 18 Jun 2021 18:20:13 No.12977948 Report

Quoted By:

>>12975633

Updated to refute your faggot image

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