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The commercial real estate crash comes for Trump

ID:86MLIgfz No.20280705 View ViewReplyOriginalReport
CRE crisis is hitting Trump where it hurts. He's not gonna make it. How bad is it? Let's look at one example of what he is facing, on 40 Wall St, New York City, a 63 story tower a short walk from the New York Stock Exchange.
https://archive.is/kObVz

The numbers:
Vacancy rate has doubled since 2020 from a low of around 10% to 21% today
Rents have dropped from $65/sqft to $57/sqft, about 1/8th
His loan is based on an operating income of over $12 million
That puts the value of the building and what he likely owes between $120-$200 million
Interest rates have climbed from 3.7% to 7% now, almost double
At the current interest rate, he pays about $.4.4 million in interest
When that rolls over, it will be closer to $8.5 million
The mortgage matures in July

Summary:
Interest alone will tank the operating income from 12 mil down to 8. Another 12% from vacancy. Another 12% from declining rents. Which brings him down to 6 mil in operating income if he's lucky. That cuts the building valuation in HALF! He needs to pony up $60-$100 million just to refinance the mortgage. Just on this ONE building. His entire fortune is in commercial real estate. Stick a fork in him, he's done. Well done, like a Trump steak covered in ketchup.