Here's the summary of economic indicators going into the all important **PCE** being released tomorrow, which is the primary number the FED uses to decide how to manipulate the rates:
>US GDP for Q1: Actual: 1.3% (Forecast: 1.2%, Previous: 1.6%)
>Implications: Slightly better than forecast but lower than the previous quarter, indicating moderate economic growth.
>Initial Jobless Claims: Actual: 219,000 (Forecast: 218,000, Previous: 215,000)
>Implications: Slight rise, indicating a softening labor market but not significantly higher than expectations.
>Advanced International Trade in Goods: Deficit: $99.4 billion in April (March: $92.3 billion)
>Implications: Rising trade deficit, with increased imports and exports, affecting domestic producers and international market competition.
>Advanced Wholesale Inventories: Total: $896.3 billion (up 0.2% from March, down 1.6% from April 2023)
>Implications: Stable supply chain, beneficial for tech and AI sectors.
>Advanced Retail Inventories: Total: $790.9 billion (up 0.7% from March, up 4.8% from April 2023)
>Implications: Strong consumer demand, positive for consumer tech products and AI-driven services.
>Consumer Confidence: Actual: 102 (Forecast: 96, Previous: 97.5)
>Implications: High consumer confidence, indicating robust consumer sentiment and willingness to spend.
Upcoming Economic Indicators to Watch:
>PCE Index (Tomorrow) Personal income and personal spending rates.
> Next Friday: Consumer Credit, Unemployment Rate
Based on these numbers, PCE might look slightly better than predicted tomorrow. If so, I am confident it will correct a lot of the dip from this week as people will anticipate a rate cut. If it doesn't, well...
