>>464716It's actually really simple. Get pen and paper and write down all possible scenarios with the information you are given. There are three. And someone actually already did it in the thread. Here:
>>460893Basically, by switching you are slotting into two of the possible scenarios, while the only way you win by staying is if your initial choice was correct (the 33% chance of you having chosen the correct door).
The thing that actually raises the probability by switching is 1. The host knowing where the car is and subsequently 2. Him always revealing a goat door after your initial choice.
If those two things weren't given then your chance would be 50% because the scenarios the other anon wrote down wouldn't be correct anymore since the host might also open the car door.
The actual issue with Monty Hall and probability in general is that while they are counter-intuitive. They account for given scenarios. It's literally the human brain not being cognitively advanced enough to properly make the distinction if the Monty Hall scenario should arise.
