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I just spend an hour troubleshooting crashes so I'll write this down for future reference. Maybe it will help some anon in the future.
After sorting through my mod folder it turns out the problem was CC.
The game would crash during the Honoka load screen after the clicking the title screen, and before hitting the login reward or home screen.
Removing only CC from the mod folder and leaving everything else let me reach the home screen.
CC at the moment is being maintained by other modders. So you have to download the official release 2.5.2 from last year and then patch it with a file found in the thread if you want to use the newer girls in CC.
Last year CC was also causing crashes and that seemed to be resolved by not updating an nvidia driver and staying on 531.79. I thought that had gotten resolved since I'm no longer on 531.79 and could use CC just fine.
TLDR:
Turns out there's a file included with CC called materialeditor.ini
Either you download a patch for that on the CC download page or delete it from the CC folder.
After patching it the game no longer crashes.
Why the fuck it suddenly started to crash when it was working the night prior I have no idea.
