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It's hard to say how things will swing. Right now we aren't in a phase where the "authentic minimal fixie" thing has been fully rejected. But retro my aesthetics have been hot for so long, mixing with absurd "high utility" bikes that are meant to do everything. They're cool but also like driving a 4x4 military wagon to your office job.
So much stuff exists now that seems better. Ten years ago I really wanted what we call adventure bikes now.
650b roadish stuff it's going to become normal. Dentists will resist though, unless Heine is proven right and pros start riding 650b on some of the races. Then they can get the dentists to buy a second high end bike (or a wheelset for their disc road frames)
Surly seems screwed. They hopped on every trend early but there isn't much left to pounce on.
Fixie seems to be making a comeback with people too young to remember the first wave. Fixie Cross is a lol thing. I can't imagine that going anywhere though. Fat tire 650b fixie I could imagine
Dirt drops are being perfected. Fire road racing on drops feels like it's going to get bigger and bigger. But what new tech is there to bring in?
Graphene frames. Carbon fiber Walmart bike. Super easy tubeless and hydro disc set-ups would be huge. Better disc calipers with a computerized wear indicator. Basically make everything noob friendlier
But what will the bike nerds want? Small batch Taiwanese frames maybe. Black mountain cycles style. The handmade authentic lugged shit is no longer aspirational or fun.
We're heading into an age of refinement. Nothing huge -- like disc, carbon, or LED lighting -- is left. We're past the age of discovery. Sad
