>>1912704They were given a goal of being self-sustaining by 2031 from the government so there will be more closures.
https://www.jrhokkaido.co.jp/corporate/region/actionplan_02.htmlAbsolutely fucked
>Hanasaki LineAll the things you said + notorious for deer strikes causing delays + data says people would fit into buses.
>Senmo LineLeast damaging line to close, like
>>1906979 said with Nakashibetsu growing. Morning rush from Shiretoko-Shari to Abashiri would require bendy buses, but the roads inbetween are wide so it wouldn't be a problem.
>Sekihoku LineThe biggest money drain of JR Hokkaido at 500 BILLION yen per year. Express trains only carry a few dozen people each since highway buses are faster(shorter route, same speed limit, no doubleback at Engaru). That leaves local trains between Toma all the way to Nishi-Rubeshibe mostly carrying air. The remainder could work as a tram or LRT from Kitami area to Memanbetsu Airport, maybe even all the way to Abashiri.
Closure likely
>Nemuro LineAll of the rail-accessible tourist stuff is near the Furano Line, and the time difference for Sapporo - Furano is only 30 minutes. Ridership in single digits outside of morning rush with 100 passengers on the train arriving 7:33 at Takigawa, more spread out in the afternoon. This could be tricky, but doable as BRT.
>Hidaka LineIt's just 30 kilometers, there's no tourist attractions in the area.
Difficult to say
>Soya LineEven the morning rush train sees 24 passengers, and only near Minami-Wakkanai, and the express trains carry about as much as on Sekihoku Line. The line loses 300 billion yen per year even after all of the 2021 station closures. It all comes down to whether JR Hokkaido dares to say goodbye to Wakkanai.
Safe
>Muroran LineMorning and evening(!) rush with multiple 100+ passenger trains and it's a big freight route.
>Furano LineEven bigger rushes, many tourist attractions, and since we assume closing the other route from Sapporo numbers would go up.
