>>1876209Brightline West modal share estimates over the years of operation range from ~14 - ~20%. This is from the latest environmental assessment they released for a part of the project, but the shares should roughly hold for all segments.
https://railroads.dot.gov/sites/fra.dot.gov/files/2022-10/Brightline%20West%20Cajon%20Pass%20High-Speed%20Rail%20EA_PDFa.pdf>their reason behind then deciding to drive the route anywayAll prior posts were working off theory and historical examples (like how ridership on New York's Els changed after the subway opened) rather than the specific facts of the case. Having looked at their ridership projections, there won't be enough congestion/change in congestion to seriously affect driver habits. Indeed, the increase in automotive use on the corridor will be greater than the increase in Brightline use (and by the end, by total Brightline traffic) over the study period.
But there are factors other than travel time that affect mode choices such that someone would still choose to drive even (or especially) if large numbers of others diverted from the roads.
