>>2063143>typhoonThey'd be waiting a long ass time. The last typhoon to get near was Songda in 2004, which broke apart in Sea of Japan before it could make a Hokkaido landfall(but was still strong enough to cause damage in Teshio).
MLIT has given JR Hokkaido a deadline until the end of fiscal 2026(so March 2027) to assess the 8 sections in the "yellow group" from the 2016 deficit announcement(200 - 2000 transportation density). You can see which lines are a part of that, and data about them here:
https://www.jrhokkaido.co.jp/corporate/region/current.htmlOf the eight, Sekihoku Main Line(4,99 billion yen) and Soya Main Line north of Nayoro(2,73 billion yen) stand out. Every other line is below 2 billion yen deficit. So it's fair to assume that both would be under the most scrutiny. However, Sekihoku Main Line has the Kitami - Abashiri area with activity(one specific morning rush train pulls in 214 passengers), and the Asahikawa - Kamikawa section isn't doing that horribly either. So the logical next step, which I imagine Kitami and Abashiri cities will take to keep the line alive, is to say "Alright, you can save money by getting rid of all local trains between Kamikawa and Rubeshibe." Decrease in services plus adding a seat fee will reduce the money bleed and keep the line alive.
Meanwhile, the most used Soya Main Line local train has 22 passengers between Horonobe and Wakkanai, and none of the 6 express trains have even 40 people going to or from Wakkanai itself. There is no real argument for keeping the line just for 6 express trains. It's too long, and JSDF already drives to Onishibetsu anyway.
If I was a betting man, I'd put money on March 2028 closure. March 2027 is when JR will start pushing municipalities to sign agreement to close using the MLIT deadline as a justification. It will take time, but will likely be a matter of months, not years.
