Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted every election. And has only been 'wrong' once, and that was in 2000 when the Republican supreme court stole the election for Bush.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4863237-electoral-prediction-kamala-harris-win/A notable elections forecaster predicted Vice President Harris will win November’s election, according to his model of 13 keys.
Allan Lichtman, a historian who has successfully predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, revealed in a New York Times video that he believes that Harris will clinch a victory over former President Trump. His election model is based on 13 true-or-false questions that ignore polls and pollsters.
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States — at least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” he said at the end of the video.
The 13 keys include whether:
>The White House party gained seats in the House in midterm elections
>The incumbent president is running
>The White House party avoided a primary contest
>A third-party candidate is running
>The short-term economy is strong
>Growth of long-term economy has been as strong as last two terms
>The White House has enacted major national policy changes
>There is no social unrest
>There is no scandal in the White House
>The incumbent party candidate has charisma
>The challenger is uncharismatic
>The White House had foreign policy success
>The White House had foreign policy failure
“The keys absolutely will work. They are the constant northern star of political prediction,” Lichtman said.
The video’s narrator explained that if a key was false, that meant it was in favor of Trump.
He found that eight of the keys are true and in favor of Harris, while three are false and favor Trump.
The keys that benefit Trump involve these false statements:
