https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-gdp-data-report-release-today-320a288b The U.S. economy once again expanded at a healthy pace, the latest data prove, even as inflation continued to cool during the third quarter. That should keep fears of a downturn at bay, while giving Federal Reserve officials the flexibility to implement further interest-rate cuts.
Inflation-adjusted, or real, gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% over the three months ended in September, according to the first estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Wednesday. The consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet was for growth of 2.6% in the third quarter, though Bloomberg’s forecast was for 2.9%.
Wednesday’s solid third-quarter growth is a tick slower from real GDP growth of 3% during the second quarter, but still between the 2% and 3% range that economists consider to be a healthy rate of growth in developed economies. The economy expanded 1.6% during the first three months of the year.
The latest data show that the U.S. economy remains robust, with the third-quarter report pushing real GDP trends even further above the Congressional Budget Office’s forecasts of just 1.5% growth.
“Though GDP is backward-looking, it sends a clear message that the economy is doing well, and inflation is moderating, good news for the Federal Reserve,” writes Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. He noted that another quarter of healthy GDP growth should stabilize expectations and reduce the risk of a sudden and significant increase in layoffs.
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The third quarter’s real GDP growth was primarily driven by increases in consumer spending, as well as federal expenditures and net exports, the bureau said Wednesday. Imports, which act as a drag on GDP, did increase markedly during the past quarter and weighed on the overall growth. Economists noted Tuesday, however, that this uptick in imports is likely a short-term trend due to the threat of the longshoremen strike in October. While GDP is a fundamental economic measure, most economists and analysts believe Fed officials will use inflation and employment data as more of a guide when weighing their interest-rate policy decision at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Wednesday’s data included a quarterly update on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index. During the third quarter, PCE inflation increased 1.5%, putting it lower than the Fed’s 2% target. That should make it easier for policymakers to justify additional rate cuts. It also marked a slower pace of price growth than the 2.5% rate logged during the second quarter. Core PCE inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, increased just 2.2% during the third quarter, compared with a rate of 2.8% in the second quarter. Investors and Fed watchers will get the monthly PCE inflation rate for September on Thursday. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect September’s headline PCE inflation was 2.1% year over year and core was 2.6%. Looking beyond Wednesday’s headline GDP number, consumer spending grew by 3.7% during the three months ended in September, the biggest gain in over a year. That is up sharply from the 2.8% growth in the second quarter.
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Last quarter, spending in goods jumped 6%, up from 3% annualized growth in the second quarter. Spending growth in services was 2.6%, largely on par with the second quarter. Within goods, the biggest areas of spending were vehicles, auto parts, and prescription drugs. Services spending was more concentrated in healthcare, as well as dining and accommodations, the bureau noted. Though economists expect consumer spending to slow in the coming quarters, the outlook remains fairly favorable as long as labor conditions remain resilient. The personal savings rate—the level of savings as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.8% during the third quarter. While that is down from the second quarter’s 5.2% rate, the Bureau recently significantly revised savings and income figures higher, and so the current levels are still fairly healthy. With inflation cooling and wage growth still chugging along, Americans’ improved purchasing power should translate into continued consumer spending. Government spending rose by 5% during the third quarter, up from the 3.1% gain in the second quarter, according to the Bureau. Much of the recent increase was driven by goods purchases. In particular, military spending jumped by nearly 15% annualized, the highest since 2003. But even amid the continued geopolitical turmoil, LPL Financial’s chief economist Jeff Roach said Wednesday he doesn’t expect government spending to continue to contribute to growth as much as it did in the third quarter. Business investment was also positive last quarter, growing 0.3%,—though it wasn’t nearly as strong as the 8.3% annualized rate logged during the second quarter. Yet equipment spending increased 11.1% over the past three months, with companies continuing to invest in new automation technology. That bodes well for labor productivity growth and could help keep inflationary pressures muted.
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While consumer, business and government spending were robust over the past three months, sluggish private inventories and residential investment weighed on economic growth. “Resilience was the name of the game for the economy in Q3, as the U.S. pushed through disruptions from a punishing hurricane season, port strikes and Middle East tensions,” writes Mike Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede. Looking across the current economic landscape, Reynolds believes the U.S. is in a late-stage expansion—and Wednesday’s GDP report reinforces this view. Still, when an economy operates above its potential, particularly for long periods, there’s a greater risk of accumulating imbalances that could lead to a downturn, he says. “This situation calls for cautious optimism and careful monitoring of emerging risks,” Reynolds says. Wednesday’s release of third-quarter real GDP is just the initial estimate. The bureau will release a second estimate based on more complete data on Nov. 27, 2024.
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I'm glad Biden was able to correct his fuck up after 3 years of fucking up
Anonymous
>praising 0.3%.. what will you retarded fucks come up with next...
Anonymous
>>1358188 2.9%, which is better than negative growth.
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>>1358189 Yeah but MAGAts are only satisfied with positivity if its their daddy figure bestowing it to them. So they'll find something to complain about.
Anonymous
>>1358189 2.9% gdp growth would be great if it was outpaced by inflation, as it has been for 4 years of Biden, but none of trumps presidency
OMG There's no engine on this ship
Socioeconomic and all human endeavor is like being on a ocean cruiser steering with a paddle.
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>>1358209 Trump fags don't understand lagging indicators. They think that once a president signs a bill or passes an EO it gets put into the magic government machine that makes everything happen immediately and the effects start occurring the next day.
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>>1358218 They also don't understand that Trump is responsible for gas being so expensive.
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>>1358219 I wouldn't say Trump is responsible but he sure didn't help. Trump's one and only foreign policy is like bullheaded isolationism. His ego resents the idea that another country would have any leverage or say over him so his goal is always to pull out and refuse to participate in any kind of coalition in he didn't come up with the idea and he doesn't have absolute control. He also resented the idea that the U.S. would prosper under anybody else's policies than his. This is why he tanked the Iran nuclear deal. This is why he was incapable of negotiating with OPEC. This is why half of his middle east initiatives excluded relevant parties like leaving the Palestinians out of the Abraham Accords or the ANA out of his Afghan pull out deal. Managing global energy requires global relationships and negotiations and the only people he seemed to have any good relationships with were dictators.
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>>1358207 So no one is responsible for this economy?
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>>1358218 the markets are predictive and will take things into account, even before a law is signed.
Anonymous
>>1358180 Joe Biden really missed an opportunity to put his name on all this awesome shit he did. He probably thought that people would notice and connect him to it, but he forgot that Americans are dumb as shit and need to be spoonfed information.
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>>1358242 Ashley Biden wrote it in her diary.
The economy recovered despite Biden/Dems not because of him.
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>>1358245 I'm praying for you.
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>>1358221 I disagree, during the Trump Virus pandemic, Oil prices were super low and the American oil business was going under, so Trump called in another favor to Putin and threatened the Saudis to get them cut production.
And they still haven't increased production since.
This is why gas prices are out of control.
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>>1358253 I sometimes enjoy your shitty fanfics.
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>>1358279 >Reads the article >Trump warns a US ally Congress is considering withdrawing troops. Well darn.
Additionally what was bad for me in this regard? Why should I be outraged? Why should I demand an apology from dRumpf?
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>>1358253 Holy Shit! Trump did something to ensure American businesses didn't tank?
That's it! I'm voting Harris. She'll let all the US businesses fail!
Fuck Trump!!!!
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>>1358280 Why are you cheery picking the article?
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>>1358316 Why did you cherry pick with a stupid article?
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Looks like Biden saved the economy from Trump
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>>1358218 >Biden gets into office >the country is still recovering from covid >on day one Biden signs EO cancelling Keystone, that even opponents of admit at least 30% would've been used domestically >cancels oil in Alaska >cancels oil in the gulf, a federal judge later smacks him for that >increases royalties, fees, taxes on oil >increases EPA restrictions >bans trade with Russia >green energy deals, auto industry restrictions, pushing electric cars >gas prices skyrocket >in a panic Biden almost empties the strategic oil reserve >it barely makes a difference in prices >ends up selling SOR barrels to China >Biden attempts to defend his actions, muh over 9,000 drilling permits not being used >even though the actual acreage has been the smallest allowed since Truman >retard democrats believe him, parroting this line >oil company/workers surveyed say they don't want to invest in new development when Biden can cancel multi-million dollar projects on a whim, restrictions are too high, still recovering from covid bans >Biden begs Saudis to help, they laugh and tell him to fuck off >Biden loosens some domestic restrictions, begs oil company to produce more >pisses off his voters who seriously thought he was going to stop drilling >oil companies increase production, making a fortune despite Biden's repeated promise to end all oil companies (lmao) >oil production finally gets back to where we were at 2019 before the pandemic on Oct 2023 >Biden now bragging we're producing more oil than ever before, as if getting back to where we were four years ago is a W >retard democrats believe him, parroting this line >oh by the way, sanctions against Iran didn't work - quadruple profits for the oil producing nation Somehow democrats will find a way to blame all of this on Trump - unless Trump wins, in which case everything good that comes from Trump reversing every Biden decision in the last four years means that Trump is profiting from the economy Biden set up.
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gotta love the big oil shills pretending that increased oil profits are good for the middle class
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>>1358603 >>1358645 What kind of deluded moron is supposed to believe this? Do you people remember that Trump undid 40 years of fuel emission standards?
>inb4 that's actually a good thing Anonymous
>>1358603 Very good post.
Dems want you to forget about Biden supporting the Green New Deal, which means destroying oil infrastructure in the United States.
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>>1358603 >>1358645 >>1358672 >Samefagging intensifies. >Keystone Pipeline And everything else you write is worthless in your attempt to defend that environmental disaster that would not lower fuel costs.
https://www.nrdc.org/stories/what-keystone-xl-pipeline Anonymous
>>1358697 The pipeline already exists retard. They wanted to add an extension to the existing pipeline.
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>>1358738 >It already exists Then we don't need an extension so dirty fuel can containment more of America with their sludge.
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>>1358658 >What kind of deluded moron is supposed to believe this? What part of this is incorrect? Inb4 "all of it!", be specific.
>Do you people remember that Trump undid 40 years of fuel emission standards? And he also lowered gas prices. Inb4 'durr prezidunt dun cuntrul prices!'
>inb4 that's actually a good thing Well why don't you tell us why that's a bad thing, without crying
>MUH GLOBAL WARMINGS MUH ENVIRONMENT While simultaneously throwing a molotov cocktail at a minority-owned store to own the police.
>>1358697 Well thank you for using a source, that even though it's heavily biased against Keystone, admits that only 70% would be used for export (not sure if their numbers are correct, but still funny either way). But please keep moaning about environmental disasters, pretending you give a fuck.
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>>1358180 Wow that's great! That means regular workers can afford to buy a house, right? There's no need for Harris to eliminate single-family zoning in middle class neighborhoods by claiming that the middle class can no longer afford single family homes right??
Of course not, OP is just a gullible pawn of the billionaire class who is repeating their line that the economy should only be measured by how well rich people are doing.
Vote blue if you want the rich to get richer thanks to lower wages. Vote red if you want the working class to be able to rent or even buy a decent house
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faggot detected above me
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>>1358751 Great that you admit that US gas prices would not go down if the pipeline was built and used. Meaning it's entire selling point is worthless.
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>>1358756 >Great that you admit that US gas prices would not go down if the pipeline was built and used. Where did I say that, fuckface?
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>>1358760 in between the lines in your lies
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>>1358760 When you try to cling to your unfounded 30% of the oil run through the pipeline will go to Americans and the fact that it won't reduce US gas prices, as confirmed by even Trump's people if you read the article.
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>>1358762 he's probably confused by the subsidy known as the oil depletion allowance that allows oil drillers to keep 27.5 percent of their profits in a tax deductible manner
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>>1358761 >in between the lines in your lies Okay so I didn't say it. Great that you admit to being a lying faggot.
>When you try to cling to your unfounded 30% of the oil run through the pipeline will go to Americans If only 70% of the oil is being used for export, from your own dogshit website, where is the other 30% going? Do we just throw it in the trash?
>and the fact that it won't reduce US gas prices 1) another fucking faggot who is putting words in my mouth. Where the fuck did I mention price?
and
2) Since we're on the subject of price now, please explain to me how increasing the supply of something to meet demand won't lower the cost. This is like high school economics. If increasing the supply of oil doesn't lower costs, why the fuck did Biden beg both domestic and foreign oil sources to increase supply?
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>>1358767 >Where the fuck did I mention price? *in connection with Keystone XL? Obviously, Trump lowered gas prices, but if we're arguing Keystone I've only brought up supply arguments until this faggot tried to pull some fuckery.
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>>1358767 >>1358777 Why are you getting so mad at the facts? Trump's Keystone Pipeline would not lower gas prices, as confirmed by Turmp's people themselves, making your claim worthless.
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>>1358778 >Why are you getting so mad >implying >at the facts? >implying >making your claim worthless. Where did I say that Keystone XL would lower gas prices, prior to this faggot anon
>>1358762 Where? Please show me where above this post here
>>1358762 that I said Keystone XL would lower gas prices.
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>>1358786 Why else would you make the unsubstantiated claim ' that even opponents of admit at least 30% would've been used domestically'
>>1358603 Unless it implies it lowers gas prices?
Or are you just letting the mask totally fall off at admit the dirty fuel industry should price gouge that 30%?
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>>1358834 Thank you for admitting that I didn't say what you claimed I said earlier.
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>>1358854 So you admit you lied.
Okay.
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>>1358879 >you said X! >where? >uh...ummm you meant X! Faggot.
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>>1358648 Increased oil profits under who?