Remember shills, these are the real polls.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5471284-drey-victory-breaks-gop-majority/

Democrat Catelin Drey has flipped an open Iowa state Senate seat, adding to the party’s successes in special elections this year, Decision Desk HQ projected.

Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch in the race to replace the late state Sen. Rocky De Witt (R), who died in office in June from cancer. Democrats homed in on the Republican-leaning district as a pickup opportunity given their overperformance in many smaller elections through 2025.

Drey’s victory breaks a GOP supermajority in the state Senate, giving her party more power despite its minority status in the body. In particular, the extra Democratic vote, which will bring the margin in the chamber to 33 Republicans to 17 Democrats, will ensure that nominees from the governor can’t get approved on a party-line vote.

A two-thirds majority is needed for nominees to be confirmed.

The DNC celebrated Drey’s win on Tuesday night, noting that the district voted for President Trump in 2024 by more than 11 points. Martin said in a statement that Iowans are seeing Republicans as a “rubber stamp” for Trump’s agenda and want change.

“They are putting Republicans on notice and making it crystal clear: any Republican pushing Trump’s unpopular, extreme agenda has no place governing on behalf of Iowa families,” he said. “That’s why all year long, Iowans have been electing Democrats ready to fight for working Iowans. Make no mistake: when Democrats organize everywhere, we win everywhere, and today is no exception.”

The flip marks the second Iowa state Senate seat this year that Democrats won, after flipping another seat in January in a district that Trump won by more than 20 points. The party has also outperformed in other special state legislative elections throughout the year, winning in another Trump-friendly state Senate district in Pennsylvania in March.