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Just went camping in similar weather (pic related). I pulled a sled with all my crap in it over a frozen lake. I forgot to bring a sleeping pad and was cold the whole night. I was wearing two shirts, two jackets, a parka/ski jacket, three pairs of pants, two pairs of wool socks, and more, plus the sleeping bag. I was freezing. Bring something more than a thick(ish) sleeping pad. Bring a couple.