>>2380767The sleep set up is very dependent on three things:
1. Temps
2. How hot or cold you sleep
3. How much cushion do you need to be comfortable
As far as temps, a good rule to follow is that you should be prepared temps 10F lower than the actual predicted low. This is more important the colder it is but it's very easy for it to feel much colder than the ambient temp due to wind, moisture, and position (such as being a low spot). The common solution is have a jacket or something you can sleep in, but it's also about knowing the limits of your bag (reminder that most commercial makers rate to survival not to comfort) and how you handle it at the extremes of that range.
How you sleep, hot or cold, is basically the follow for that. For example I have found that I am on the warm side. The only part I have trouble with is fingers, toes, and head but the bag can be pushed several degrees below it's suggested rating for me.
As for pad, you may want to consider the R value of that as well if it's cold. It is possible to have a warm bag feel cold because the ground below you is pulling conducting warmth away. You will also want to consider whether you side sleep or roll over a lot. I tend to side sleep, so thin rubber pad is not enough for me. I need the bougie thick air pad to allow my shoulders to get underneath me. Some people use 1/8th neoprene. All preference. There one thing were it's usually nice to bring both is winter. Nylon inflatables despite R-rating experience feel colder to the touch at freezing temps, so in winter it's often better to stack a rubber mat on top of an inflatable pad.
The core of the sleep system is you, so this is where it's good to try stuff out and see what works for you. Sleep on the floor in your house with your pad. Sleep in the backyard. Go to the local park and take a nap. Do an overnight, etc. It takes a time to dial in your gear to your environment and needs.