If AEW gets kicked to a channel on the super deluxe cable package instead of just the deluxe package, I doubt most WWE fans will be willing to pay that extra $20 to keep watching. Will current AEW fans? That's the calculation WBD is making - yes they'll lose viewers, but will Cable/Satellite channels remove TNT/TBS because they lost AEW? Of course not. All these networks are interconnected -- it takes several of them paying above market-value for products in order for the entire ecosystem to survive.
For those of you wondering why Comcast/Universal overpaid for Smackdown, to get it back from Network TV, now you know. They aren't just getting NBC/Universal channel package money, Comcast also wants/needs to keep people subscribed to their cable+internet bundles. The more people cancel cable, the easier it is to find another internet provider (5G ramping up in major cities), and now you're effectively down 2 customers
Unfortunately for AEW, the Smackdown/USA deal really screwed them because they won't be able to sell themselves as the only nationwide wrestling promotion on cable TV.