Quoted By:
Actually, you are thinking about this all wrong. You need to stop worrying about the confession, and start worrying about getting taken into custody. Because right now, in your possession, sitting pretty somewhere in that jumbled bundle is a wand, and fuel nodules for that wand. If those get found, and they would, even in the most cursory of searches, then the confession, the robbery, the pressure from the Tartessian Embassy, all of it becomes a moot point. So, how do you get out of this, without getting taken into custody. Well, obviously, running away … but the presence of the pistol complicates that, so it might be best to consider that as a second option.
Setting aside making a break for it, it seems to you that there are four possible outcomes from any conversation that you have here. The first is the most straight forward, you tell the truth, and he honors his word, allowing you to walk out of here. The second is the one that you are the most worried about, that you tell the truth, but he goes back on his word, and tries to take you in. The third outcome is that you lie, and then he follows through on his threat, and tries to take you in. The final one is the tricky one out, where you lie and deny it … and then it turns out that he was lying about taking you in if you denied it, and he lets you walk. Two outcomes where you have to run for your life, and two outcomes where you get to walk out the door. Shit, you might as well flip a –
Wait a minute! You are actually on to something here!
You don’t know this man, his character, or his trustworthiness. Nothing that he has said indicates one way or another that he is going to break or keep his word, so in absence of actual odds, there is no reason to not hold the chances of each of the four outcomes as equal – <span class="mu-i">except perhaps for the fourth outcome</span>! If the man is who he presents himself to be, then the fourth outcome makes some sense – it would be him trying and failing to trick you to get you to confess to a crime. But if this man is a Thief-Taker, or someone trying to collect the bounty, which is entirely possible, <span class="mu-i">then the fourth outcome does not make sense</span>. Because if he was then considering how closely you match the description – and how rare women who match that description are – there is no reason to him to not to drag you to the Belly and gamble on you being convicted. Unless he was concerned if you actually were guilty or innocent, but if he was, and even if all of his talk about pressure on the Justiciars to get a conviction is actually true, if you had a genuinely exonerating story, then you doubt that a Justiciar would send a woman to her death. Then if this man was in fact a Thief-Taker or unaffiliated bounty seeker, he could sleep with a white conscience ‘gambling’ on a conviction by taking you in, which means that the odds of the fourth outcome have to be significantly lower than the other three.
