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Rolled 16, 7, 17, 14, 7, 16, 15 = 92 (7d20)
Dragon far away? Does not make sens with the ambush and attacks - if that was the case, they would have turtled up and wait for reinforcement.
Dragon waiting in a lair full of trap and baiting you in? Possible. Dragon asleep? Improbable.
In doubt, remind the Nursery Rhyme :
Scales of metal, you can trust as a pal
Scales of gem, it really depends of them
Scales of leather, pray to your maker
This have some nice implications : First, you're not time-constrained. You all take the day to rest, feed well, tend to your gear.
As the Knucklehead trout will not be useful as a fish-flavored Popsicle, Claire turns that into delicious roasted fillets, drastically improving everyone's mood.
Hector takes even more pleasure knowing he is actively pissing of the dragon - a greedy tyrannical being is never an embodiment of patience.
Hector ponders. Comes up with a plan. Gather everyone in a tent isolated from the snow, and show them doodles - avoiding any spycraft based on sound or snowvision from the prey.
>94 vs 53
The next day, all of the Knight enter the dragon's lair. Pretending to advance cautiously and sneakily, Hector is focused on listening his guts.
"<span class="mu-s">Now!</span>"
A fraction of second before the cold cave turns into the frozen hell. All knight scatter, letting the oversized lizard sealing the cave entry with its breath.
>Boss status : Breathless
"<span class="mu-s">Dire mistake. We're not trapped with you. You're trapped with us</span>"
The White dragon takes the baits and charge. Hector smiles, solidly grasping his weapon, the Tumulus' sleeper headband glowing.
>4 anon roll 1d20 for Hector
>2 anon roll 1d20 for Vaillant