>>5997835>>5997844ok, but my conclusion remains the same
we want the auction for one lot to end asap, and with each bid we get a chance to end, say 85% and 75% for the first two, then the total chance for the bid to end was already 63.75%
assuming start at starting bid and each back and forth bid increases the price by 20% (although we should only ever add the minimum amount to the bid)
number of bids with price estimation
1st bid: 85.0% (total chance: 85.0%, price: 100.0%)
2nd bid: 72.5% (total chance: 61.6%, price: 120.0%)
3rd bid: 62.1% (total chance: 38.3%, price: 144.0%)
4th bid: 53.4% (total chance: 20.4%, price: 172.8%)
5th bid: 46.2% (total chance: 9.43%, price: 207.4%)
6th bid: 40.1% (total chance: 3.79%, price: 248.8%)
