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Is this the active /shw/?
Anyways, I have the definitive results of that research about shiny rates for my papers.
I had to manually exclude the outliers, but I achieved a decent enough result for show
>Sample 1: Breeds with Shiny Charm
>Elements: 96
>Average: 496,1875 eggs
>Standard Deviation: 270,4344 eggs
>Sample 2: Breeds without Charm
>Elements: 135
>Average: 522,3333 eggs
>Standard Deviation: 289,5183
Working with α = 95%, we have: (spoilering technical info)
Tested F is 1,15, Critical F is 1,44 for Charm and 1,36 for non-charm. Variances are equal
Critical Z for α=95% is 1,96, tested Z equals to 0,70. Similarly, P-Value is 0,482, bigger than significance (0,05)
Bad news: Shiny Charm is only a "lucky charm" for Masuda hunting, having no effect on the outcome.
Good news: These values yield an unexpected average. It's not 1366 nor 1024, but closer to 512 - it suggests Masuda Method cranks the shiny rate to 8x.
a somewhat related note, I've heard about a guy in Smogon trying to do the same research with me, but with way less bias. Instead of calling people and asking "how many eggs you hatched", he asked "hatch x eggs and tell me how many shinies you've got". I didn't look yet at his results to avoid another bias for me, but I've heard his conclusion was the polar opposite of mine Does anyone have the links for that conclusion?
