This thread is in response to
>>39271159 which is now archived.
As much as I'd like to think this data is telling (not even accounting for people who will flip opinions by release), the sample size is too small.
In order for this to garner any useful information, a few assumptions and estimations need to be made.
First, we will need to assume there is no chance of changing sides. One of my concerns is how the question for this survey is posed.
>"As of right now, are you considering buying pokemon Sword and/or Pokemon Shield?"A better way of phrasing this is "Do you plan on buying Sword and Shield new." Because second-hand games aren't included in Gamefreak's metrics this will minimize muddying of any future estimations as well as create a somewhat "sterile" environment to work in.
The next assumptions are contingent on Gamefreak's business plan. Given Masuda's decision to announce the lack of a national dex I can imagine two likely scenarios. Gamefreak believes that:
A) Despite the outrage, SwSh will perform consistently with previous "new versions" of mainline titles from the past decade in terms of units sold (I omit HGSS from this definition because it is somewhat of an outlier at only 12.73 Mil copies sold, for similar reasons I will not factor Let's Go. I do however include ORAS in my calculations because it performed relatively consistently at 14.19 Mil)
B) Despite the outrage, SwSh perform consistently with previous new versions of mainline titles from the past decade in terms of income, due to the 50% price increase (this isn't even factoring differences in the number of Switch units in circulation, 3DS units in circulation, manhours, or even potential countries where the price hike is inconsistent or sales such as Black Friday in the US. Again in order to make any sort of useful estimation, a sort of sterile environment is needed)
(1/3)
