>>36420747Okay I'm less lazy so if we set P(perfect) = (1 / 4) * (1 / 216) = (1 / 864), and set P(Lucky) as a variable X to solve, we'll have:
>1 / 864 = X * (1 / 216) + (1 - X) * (1 / 1,331)>1 / 864 = [ (1 / 216) - (1 / 1,331) ] * X + (1 / 1,331)>X = [ (1 / 864) - (1 / 1,331) ] / [ (1 / 216) - (1 / 1,331) ]>X = [ (1,331 / 864) - 1 ] / [ (1,331 / 216) - 1 ]>X = [ (467 / 864) ] / [ (1,115 / 216) ]>X = 467 / 4,460>X = 0.10470852017937219730941704035874 ~= 10.5% ~= 1 / 9.55My proposed theoretical Lucky success rate is about 10.5%.
I thought it'd be lower than 10%.But nobody has real friends (let alone Best Friends) as evidenced by the current ongoing conversation, so what does this mean for the other friendship tiers?
P(perfect for 0* trades) = 0.00070333868893767646570337153296795 ~= 0.07% ~= 1 / 1,421 (about 7:1 ratio)
P(perfect for 1* trades) = 0.00081103407267953804057034586914701 ~= 0.08% ~= 1 / 1,232 (about 6:1 ratio)
P(perfect for 2* trades) = 0.00089226803063802559649934076128785 ~= 0.09% ~= 1 / 1,120 (about 5:1 ratio)
P(perfect for 3* trades) = 0.00100287016276366052150805514034 ~= 0.1% ~= 1 / 1,000 (about 4.5:1 ratio)
What does this mean? It means, if your goal is to reroll IVs for a chance at perfects, don't bother trading with friends who aren't 3* or 4* with you unless it's a common shitmon and your trading partner is as autistic as you about that particular shitmon and you both think you can brute-force against Hanke's will.
