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Across Dialga, Palkia, Yvetal and Xerneas I’m currently 140 encounters in with no shinies. I didn’t raid the deoxys hard at all and didn’t get a shiny, so at most 0.076% are the odds of this cold streak? So much funky things haves happened during this stretch too, best example I can come up with is I routinely get same Ivs back to back on raids or same ivs as my friend. TLDR I seriously doubt we get truly random odds.