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Chances of getting a perfect in this day and age:
Wild: 1 in 4,096
Weather Boosted: 1 in 1,728
Egg: 1 in 216
Raid: 1 in 216
Task: 1 in 216
Trading:
- 0* Friend: 1 in 4,096
- 1* Friend: 1 in 2,744
- 2* Friend: 1 in 2,197
- 3* Friend: 1 in 1,728
- 4* Friend: 1 in 1,331
- Lucky: 1 in 216
- Lucky Chance: Somewhere between 5% and 10%
Actual chance of getting a perfect from a trade with a Best Friend (assuming 10% Lucky chance):
P(perfect) = P(Lucky) * P(perfect | Lucky) + P(not Lucky) * P(perfect | not Lucky)
P(perfect) = 10% * (1 / 216) + (100% - 10%) * (1 / 1,331)
P(perfect) = (1 / 10) * [ (1 / 216) + (9 / 1,331) ]
P(perfect) = (1 / 10) * [ (1,331 + 1,944) / 287,496 ]
P(perfect) = (1 / 10) * (3,275 / 287,496)
P(perfect) = 655 / 574,992
P(perfect) = 0.00113914628377438294793666694493 ~= 0.114% ~= 1 / 878
Given that the trading cap is 100 trades a day, and it takes about 1 hour to do 20 trades => 5 hours to do 100 trades, you will spend about 9*5 = 45 hours of trading for one perfect purely via trading.
Also note that (1/878) is basically almost a quarter of (1/216). This is probably not a coincidence and the actual Lucky chance is probably some stupid number close to 10% but not quite so that the multiplier fits. Too lazy to figure it out now so I'll do it in a later post.
tl;dr - 4 trades with a Best Friend is basically a welfare Incubator / Raid Pass. Ratio is worse if you're not Best Friends.
