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So I've been looking at the pages for the second forms of the alolan starters, and they all have one thing in common:
an affection sentence
what I mean by this is that there is the general description of the pokemon, their lore and stuff, and then, towards the end, it talks about the trainer himself. If you, as a trainer, spend time with it in this new pokemon refresh, it will show it's true feelings? Could this be the key to the split evos? A certain amount of hearts or points from pokemon refresh could switch the evolution from one normal-ish evolution to something cooler or different at least.
This is just a theory, but it seems like it's worth sharing due to it's conspicuous addition to the entries on the pokemon