>>14632099>>14632157>>14632160Time for some math. Fucking probabilities.
Masuda method increases your chance of obtaining a shiny to 1/1365. Essentially this means you'll have a 50% chance of having hatched AT LEAST one after 945 eggs.
945 50%
1252 60%
1642 70%
2196 80%
3141 90%
6283 99%
Of course this doesn't mean any guarantee. Expecting it to happen on egg 6283 because 6282 were failures is the gambler's fallacy.